2022-08-10, 11:32 PM
Hai hôm nay có vụ nổ lớn ở rung chuyển đảo Crimea mà có những tin tức bất lợi khó kiểm chứng về phía Nga như 16 chiếc chiến đấu cơ của họ bị phá hủy. Mật vụ phương Tây thì loan tin rằng Ukraine đứng phía sau vụ này vì đảo Crimea theo lẽ vẫn còn thuộc Ukraine, và do đó Hoa Kỳ không ngần ngại để cho HIMARIS có tầm vươn tới đảo Crimea. Nhưng phía Ukraine thì im lặng và không đứng ra nhận lấy vụ phá nổ này. Nga thì dĩ nhiên sẽ không bao giờ nhìn nhận rằng Ukraine có khả năng phá hủy quân cụ của họ, vì như vậy là gián tiếp nói phòng không của mình rất tệ.
Tuy nhiên có lẽ là Ukraine. Vì lần đánh chìm chiếc tàu chiến ngoài khơi lần trước họ cũng không chính thức nhìn nhận, nhưng lại châm chọc.
Theo viện khảo sát chiến tranh ở Mỹ, thì câu thòng của tổng thống Ukraine nhìn nhận không chính thức vụ nổ rồi:
August 10, 2022 - Press ISW
![[Image: ISW%20LOGO%202_14.jpg?itok=pTpCnlvM]](https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/styles/thumb-wide/public/ISW%20LOGO%202_14.jpg?itok=pTpCnlvM)
Ukrainian officials framed the August 9 attack in Crimea as the start of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south, suggesting that the Ukrainian military expects intense fighting in August and September that could decide the outcome of the next phase of the war. A Ukrainian official told Politico on August 10 that “you can say this is it” when asked about the start of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vaguely noted on August 10 that the war “began with Crimea and must end with Crimea - with its liberation.” Russian officials remain confused about the August 9 attack on the Saki Air Base in Russian-occupied Crimea, over 225km behind Russian lines, which destroyed at least eight Russian aircraft and multiple buildings. Satellite imagery confirmed reports from Ukraine’s air force that the attack destroyed at least eight Russian aircraft, contradicting Russian claims that the explosions did not damage any aircraft and were not the result of an attack. Russian outlets shared conflicting stories: the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed on August 9 that munitions had been detonated at a storage site at the airfield due to negligence, not an attack, and claimed that no aircraft were damaged. Russian milblogger Rybar claimed on August 10 that the explosion was likely not caused by a missile strike and hypothesized that the explosions could be due to negligence and non-compliance with safety regulations or to a small helicopter with a bomb attacking a nearby parking lot. Mixed stories in Russian media and among Russian milbloggers indicate that either officials within the Russian Ministry of Defense have competing theories regarding the attack and are sharing them with the media, or that the Kremlin has failed to coordinate its information operation to deny that Ukraine conducted a successful attack so far behind Russian lines. Russian forces at the airbase likely know by now what happened but may not yet understand how or from exactly where Ukrainian forces conducted the attack.
/* nguồn: https://www.understandingwar.org/publications
Tuy nhiên có lẽ là Ukraine. Vì lần đánh chìm chiếc tàu chiến ngoài khơi lần trước họ cũng không chính thức nhìn nhận, nhưng lại châm chọc.
Theo viện khảo sát chiến tranh ở Mỹ, thì câu thòng của tổng thống Ukraine nhìn nhận không chính thức vụ nổ rồi:
August 10, 2022 - Press ISW
Ukrainian officials framed the August 9 attack in Crimea as the start of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south, suggesting that the Ukrainian military expects intense fighting in August and September that could decide the outcome of the next phase of the war. A Ukrainian official told Politico on August 10 that “you can say this is it” when asked about the start of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vaguely noted on August 10 that the war “began with Crimea and must end with Crimea - with its liberation.” Russian officials remain confused about the August 9 attack on the Saki Air Base in Russian-occupied Crimea, over 225km behind Russian lines, which destroyed at least eight Russian aircraft and multiple buildings. Satellite imagery confirmed reports from Ukraine’s air force that the attack destroyed at least eight Russian aircraft, contradicting Russian claims that the explosions did not damage any aircraft and were not the result of an attack. Russian outlets shared conflicting stories: the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed on August 9 that munitions had been detonated at a storage site at the airfield due to negligence, not an attack, and claimed that no aircraft were damaged. Russian milblogger Rybar claimed on August 10 that the explosion was likely not caused by a missile strike and hypothesized that the explosions could be due to negligence and non-compliance with safety regulations or to a small helicopter with a bomb attacking a nearby parking lot. Mixed stories in Russian media and among Russian milbloggers indicate that either officials within the Russian Ministry of Defense have competing theories regarding the attack and are sharing them with the media, or that the Kremlin has failed to coordinate its information operation to deny that Ukraine conducted a successful attack so far behind Russian lines. Russian forces at the airbase likely know by now what happened but may not yet understand how or from exactly where Ukrainian forces conducted the attack.
/* nguồn: https://www.understandingwar.org/publications
![[Image: K6bu1Jw.png]](https://i.imgur.com/K6bu1Jw.png){kind=small}